Northern Kentucky

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	115.0
Current RPI:	115
Expected SOS:	246
Current SOS:	246
Current Record:	20-9
Expected Record:	20-9
Current Conf Record:	15-4
Expected Conf Record:	15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-1
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	107
Expected OOC SOS:	60

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-9	115.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	81-63	W	100%
11-17	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	N	78-87	W	100%
11-18	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	N	72-85	W	100%
11-19	Vermont (60.0)	AE	N	64-66	L	0%
11-25	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	76-74	L	0%
12-2	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	86-49	W	100%
12-6	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	84-71	L	0%
12-10	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	91-63	W	100%
12-17	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	76-75	L	0%
12-19	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	A	64-58	L	0%
12-28	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	77-59	W	100%
12-30	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	86-51	W	100%
1-5	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	83-87	W	100%
1-7	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	54-56	W	100%
1-11	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	81-84	L	0%
1-15	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	70-55	W	100%
1-18	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	64-91	W	100%
1-20	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	65-77	W	100%
1-26	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	70-83	L	0%
1-28	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	72-44	W	100%
2-1	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	85-95	W	100%
2-3	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	61-78	W	100%
2-8	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	54-52	W	100%
2-10	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	86-80	W	100%
2-16	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	69-67	L	0%
2-19	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	70-51	W	100%
2-23	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	72-79	W	100%
2-25	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	56-75	W	100%
3-3	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	N	80-89	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Kentucky	Horz	26.46	26.46	71.11	71.11	11.17	11.17
Cleveland St.	Horz	6.24	6.24	32.26	32.26	-2.22	-2.22
Wright St.	Horz	4.59	4.59	70.00	70.00	1.84	1.84
Oakland	Horz	4.54	4.54	58.06	58.06	0.73	0.73
Milwaukee	Horz	4.51	4.51	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Detroit	Horz	4.50	4.50	21.43	21.43	-2.57	-2.57
Green Bay	Horz	4.50	4.50	35.71	35.71	-1.29	-1.29
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.47	4.47	21.43	21.43	-2.55	-2.55
IUPUI	Horz	4.47	4.47	34.62	34.62	-1.37	-1.37
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.45	4.45	53.57	53.57	0.32	0.32
East Tennessee St.	SC	3.51	3.51	73.33	73.33	1.64	1.64
Morehead St.	OVC	1.85	1.85	23.08	23.08	-0.99	-0.99
Vermont	AE	1.81	1.81	78.12	78.12	1.02	1.02
UMBC	AE	1.80	1.80	66.67	66.67	0.60	0.60
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.79	1.79	32.14	32.14	-0.64	-0.64
Iona	MAAC	1.72	1.72	62.50	62.50	0.43	0.43
James Madison	CAA	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
Memphis	Amer	1.72	1.72	60.61	60.61	0.37	0.37
Texas A&M	SEC	1.72	1.72	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Western Michigan	MAC	0.24	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.24	0.24	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Belmont	OVC	0.24	0.24	72.73	72.73	0.11	0.11
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.19	0.19	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Kent St.	MAC	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	82.76	82.76	0.11	0.11
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.17	0.17	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
The Citadel	SC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Furman	SC	0.16	0.16	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Albany	AE	0.16	0.16	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Cincinnati	Amer	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	6.67	6.67	-0.12	-0.12
Hartford	AE	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Stony Brook	AE	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	87.88	87.88	0.10	0.10
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
VMI	SC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	15.62	15.62	-0.07	-0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Butler	BE	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01